The Roth IRA: tax free retirement income. What’s not to love? 

But wait a minute. What Congress gives Congress can take away, right? Might Congress, looking for tax revenues to pay off the debt, simply make Roth distributions in retirement taxable? Not very likely. 

While I have no evidence to support this proposition, my guess is that Roth account owners vote at very high rates. Voting to tax Roth withdrawals in retirement seems to be a good way to create a motivated constituency to deny members of Congress re-election. I’m hardly the first person to argue that it is very unlikely that Congress will ever subject Roth withdrawals to income taxation.

The Value Added Tax

There are indirect ways for Congress to attack Roths and tax some of that otherwise tax free account value. One way some worry about is the value-added tax, otherwise known as the VAT. The VAT is a consumption tax on goods and services. The EU has a website here describing the VAT in the European Union. A VAT functions like a sales tax and can be added at any or all levels of production. Many developed countries have a VAT, but the United States does not. 

Roths and the VAT

A VAT has the potential to increase the price of goods and/or services, and thus, to potentially eat away at value inside Roth accounts. 

Here is a simplified example of how that would work. 

Maria is retired. Her annual consumption is approximately $95,000, $5,000 of which is property taxes. She lives off $25,000 a year in Social Security income and $70,000 a year in withdrawals from her Roth IRA. She pays no income taxes on those withdrawals. If a 10 percent VAT were enacted on retail sales, she would need to withdraw approximately $9,000 (10 percent of her current $90,000 non-property tax annual consumption) more from her Roth IRA to pay for her current level of consumption. Instead of using an income tax, the government collects $9,000 from her Roth IRA annually by imposing a VAT.

The VAT functions as a tax on a Roth IRA. As Maria has to withdraw more from her Roth to maintain the same level of consumption, the VAT also reduces the value of amounts inside a Roth IRA. Does this mean a Roth IRA is less desirable?

For the reasons argued below, I believe that the answer is No. First, it should be remembered that were a VAT to be implemented, is almost certain to be implemented in addition to the current federal income tax. Sure, if the United States were to switch from an income tax to a VAT traditional IRA owners would win big (having previously received an income tax deduction without a later income tax charge) and Roth IRA owners would lose big. But a switch from an income tax to a VAT is almost certainly not happening. 

Second, when assessing the value of Roth accounts in a United States with a VAT, one must compare them to the alternatives: traditional retirement accounts and taxable accounts. 

Traditional Versus Roth with a VAT

Let’s start out by examining the difference between a Roth IRA and a traditional IRA if there is a federal VAT. Here is an example. 

Joe is 65 years old and retired. He is a lifelong New York Jets fan, and decides he wants to go Super Bowl LVI, to see his Jets, presumably the AFC representatives in the game. One ticket costs $10,000 and Joe’s only source of funds for the purchase is his retirement account. Joe’s marginal federal income tax rate is 22 percent. Here are the results if Joe has a traditional IRA and a Roth IRA both without a federal VAT on the ticket and with a 5 percent federal VAT on the ticket:

	No VAT	No VAT	5% VAT	5% VAT
IRA Type	Amount Needed	Income Tax Due	Amount Needed	Income Tax Due
Traditional	$12,821	$2,821	$13,462	$2,962
Roth	$10,000	$0	$10,500	$0

Hopefully you can see what is going on in the table. With a traditional IRA, one cannot simply withdraw $10,000 to pay for a $10,000 expense. There will be income tax due on the withdrawal. In order to net out $10,000 to pay for the ticket, Joe must withdraw $12,821, which covers the cost of the ticket and the 22 percent federal income tax (assume Joe lives in Florida so there’s no state income tax). This is computed as the amount needed ($10,000) divided by 1 minus the tax rate (1 minus .22), which equals $12,821. 

With a 5 percent VAT, Joe must pay $10,500 for the Super Bowl ticket. From his traditional IRA, he must withdraw $13,462, computed as the amount needed ($10,500) divided by 1 minus the tax rate (1 minus .22). 

As we are about to learn, paying a VAT with a traditional IRA creates a new tax: income tax on the VAT. Paying a VAT with a Roth IRA avoids this new tax.

If Joe pays for his Super Bowl ticket with a traditional IRA, he needs $641 more from his traditional IRA in a VAT environment to pay for the Super Bowl ticket. He must pay $141 in additional income tax to cover this additional withdrawal. The income tax on the VAT is $110 (22 percent of $500), the income tax on the income tax on the VAT is $24 (22 percent of $110), and there is approximately $7 of income tax on the remainder of the income tax required. 

See this spreadsheet for the income tax calculation. Incredibly, it is possible to pay income tax on the income tax on the income tax on the income tax on the VAT if you pay the VAT from a traditional IRA. It will get much worse as expenses increase beyond the $10,000 tackled in this example. 

The first lesson: a VAT hurts those with traditional IRAs, since they will have to increase their taxable withdrawals to pay for goods and services subject to the VAT. When paid with a traditional retirement account, VAT creates several new taxes: the VAT itself, the income tax on the VAT, the income tax on the income tax on the VAT, etc.

The second lesson: if a VAT is enacted, the Roth protects retirees from the income tax payable on the VAT. The 5 percent VAT increases the total tax cost of the $10,000 ticket by $641 if one uses a traditional IRA but only by $500 if one uses a Roth IRA. Having a Roth protects against income tax on the VAT itself. This makes a Roth an even more desirable planning alternative if there is a VAT than if there is no VAT. 

The income tax on the VAT is another tax villain the Roth can successfully defeat.

Roth Versus Taxable with a VAT

I believe the logic applied in the Roth versus Traditional VAT environment applies in assessing Roths versus taxable accounts in a VAT environment. To fund consumption, retirees will have to sell more of their taxable brokerage accounts to pay for the now increased price of goods and services, resulting in higher capital gains (and thus, more capital gains taxes) in many cases. Using a Roth withdrawal to pay a VAT protects against those additional capital gains taxes. 

Planning

If one believes that a VAT is coming, there is not much, to my mind, to be done from a financial planning perspective, other than increasing amounts in Roth accounts. One might purchase durable goods in advance of the enactment of a VAT, but that sort of planning is of limited value. How many refrigerators can you stockpile for your future use? For those worried about a VAT, the tactics that appear effective are to increase Roth contributions and/or conversions.

While a VAT would not be good news, it makes the Roth planning decision more likely to be the advantageous planning decision.

Paying a VAT out of a Roth avoids the income tax on the VAT (and the resulting additional income taxes) retirees incur when paying the VAT out of a traditional IRA. A Roth also avoids increased capital gains taxes resulting from using taxable brokerage accounts to pay a VAT. 

Conclusion

A VAT is not good news for Roth IRA owners, but it is worse news for traditional IRA owners. Roths limit the tax damage of a VAT to the VAT itself in a way neither traditional retirement accounts nor taxable accounts are capable of. In the age-old traditional versus Roth debate, the possibility of a future VAT moves the needle (if ever so slightly) in the direction of the Roth. 

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This post is for entertainment and educational purposes only. It does not constitute accounting, financial, investment, legal, or tax advice. Please consult with your advisor(s) regarding your personal accounting, financial, investment, legal, and tax matters. Please also refer to the Disclaimer & Warning section found here.